Gantz Hits Historical Low as Netanyahu Gains Momentum Thanks to Trump and Eisenkot’s Departure

Gantz’s Weakening Position

Recent electoral polling by Maariv reveals a dramatic downturn for Benny Gantz, who is now facing a historic low, with his party projected to drop to just four seats in the Knesset. This decline follows the departure of Gadi Eisenkot from the National Unity Party, which subsequently rebranded itself as “Blue and White.” Gantz’s rebranding attempts under the hashtag “The Courage to Agree” suggest an outreach to Netanyahu, hoping for a coalition possibility.

In the best-case scenario, Gantz could see his party achieve six seats, down from eight in previous polls. Speculation arises that if Eisenkot decides to run independently, Gantz may plummet to a mere five seats. Notably, Gantz is expected to suffer losses if Eisenkot aligns with other political figures such as Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, or Avigdor Lieberman, with projections indicating four seats in these scenarios.

Netanyahu’s Strength Amidst Political Change

Benjamin Netanyahu, on the other hand, benefits from the political climate following American support amidst ongoing tensions with Iran. The recent poll indicates that Netanyahu is only seven seats away from forming a government, highlighting the disintegration of the opposition. Currently, only 25% of Israelis support the continuation of Netanyahu’s trial, a stark change attributed to Trump’s endorsement.

In examining Eisenkot’s potential moves, it becomes clear he must choose an alliance strategically-joining Bennett or Lieberman would bolster the coalition’s strength, while aligning with Lapid could lead to a more significant shift in the balance of power. Under the current circumstances, a coalition led by him and cooperation from Lapid could elevate the opposition to 59 seats, potentially enabling a stronger resistance against a Netanyahu-led government.

Stability of Right-Wing Parties

A noteworthy aspect of the polls is the almost unwavering stability of the Otzma Yehudit party, which consistently holds around seven seats across various scenarios. However, this number may decrease to six if Eisenkot collaborates with Bennett. The ongoing tension between Itamar Ben Gvir of Otzma Yehudit and Bezalel Smotrich of the Religious Zionist Party indicates that Ben Gvir is not just attracting voters but also maintaining loyalty among his base.

Challenges Within the Left Bloc

As the left appears fractured, the Democratic Party maintains a projection of eleven seats regardless of Eisenkot’s independent run. Yet, should Eisenkot align with Bennett or Lapid, the Democratic Party’s position weakens to ten or even nine seats respectively. This shift could hamper the left’s ability to establish a formidable challenge against Netanyahu and his coalition.

Implications for the Upcoming Vote

As the Knesset prepares for a critical vote regarding the potential ousting of Ayman Odeh, the Arab parties are projected to drop from eleven to ten seats, exacerbating the challenges for opposition unity. The upcoming vote requires a favorable outcome for Odeh to maintain representation.

In conclusion, the political landscape in Israel is evolving rapidly. With Gantz facing significant setbacks and Netanyahu gaining support, the balance of power remains precarious as the opposition attempts to solidify its stance before the next elections