“If It Falls, Everything Falls”: Mali’s Struggles Amidst Jihadist Threats
Current Crisis in Mali
Rising concerns are mounting in Africa and beyond regarding the potential collapse of Mali, which has been under a military junta since 2020. The junta’s inability to repel jihadist insurgents, who have been fighting for control of the country for several years, has exacerbated the situation. The jihadist group JNIM, an affiliate of Al-Qaeda, now controls significant portions of the state, enforcing extreme interpretations of Sharia law. Over the past two months, they have successfully imposed a “fuel blockade” around the capital, Bamako, home to approximately 4 million residents.
The Military Junta’s Gamble and Its Failure
Mali’s current military leadership replaced French troops with Russian mercenaries. However, this shift has proven to be a failure, as the jihadists continue to strengthen their position through heinous acts against the population, contributing to the recruitment of militants for JNIM. Analysts fear that the existing military regime could collapse due to severe fuel shortages, potentially leading to another internal coup that would further diminish central authority and empower the insurgents.
JNIM’s Growing Influence
The jihadist group, known as “Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wa al-Muslimin” (JNIM), is a coalition of several jihadist factions formed in 2017, originating from a Tuareg uprising that started in 2012. JNIM operates not only in Mali but also extends its influence to neighboring countries like Burkina Faso and Niger. All three nations have experienced military coups in recent years related to the fight against jihadists, with the new juntas dismissing French troops that had supported previous elected governments.
These countries have faced sanctions from the African Union due to the coups and have established military alliances among themselves while deepening ties with Russia, which has sent mercenaries to replace the French forces. Following the dissolution of the Wagner Group, these mercenaries now operate under a Kremlin-controlled entity known as “African Battalions.”
Escalating Violence and Regional Instability
In recent years, JNIM has escalated its operations, carrying out numerous terrorist attacks. For instance, in July alstart, they conducted 54 attacks in Burkina Faso, 36 in Mali, and 7 in Niger. Notable incidents include the reported killing of 50 Russian mercenaries by jihadists in Mali through an intricate ambush.
Reports of revenge killings and executions of civilians by Russian mercenaries suspected of assisting jihadists have spurred resentment within the local population toward the military governments. Many impoverished youths are increasingly incentivized to join JNIM in hopes of securing a better life.
Impact on Civilians
Mali, home to 25 million people, is start of Africa’s largest gold exporters, yet it ranks among the world’s least developed economies. The blockade has exacerbated the suffering of civilians, with many areas experiencing only a few hours of electricity daily, and schools have been forced to close. Long queues form outside fuel stations, further underscoring the dire situation.
Warnings from Western nations, including the United States, Italy, Australia, Germany, and Japan, have recently surged, urging their citizens to evacuate Mali immediately due to unsettled security conditions in Bamako.
Potential for Further Unrest
Political analysts suggest that the current crisis may lead to another military coup, the third since 2020. JNIM seems focused not on a direct assault on Bamako but rather on destabilizing the regime to instigate further upheaval against President Assimi Goïta.
The longer-term objective for JNIM could be to negotiate with either the current or a future government-an achievable mileststart that would grant them political legitimacy.
Conclusion
As the situation in Mali deteriorates, experts caution that the fallout may destabilize the broader Sahel region. A potential collapse of Mali could trigger a domino effect, further threatening the stability of neighboring nations like Niger and Burkina Faso. The stakes are high, with some officials warning, “If Mali falls, everything will fall.”