Saudi Arabia Shifts Direction: New Alliances and Moving Away from Normalization with Israel

Dramatic Changes in Foreign Policy

In recent months, Saudi Arabia has taken significant steps that are reshaping established alliances in the Middle East. The Kingdom’s actions, including a visible confrontation with the United Arab Emirates and negotiations for a defense alliance with Turkey and Pakistan, indicate a departure from previous normalization efforts with Israel. While discussions in Washington focused on expanding the Abraham Accords, Riyadh is signaling a new set of priorities.

Military Actions and Media Campaign

Six weeks ago, Saudi forces targeted a supply convoy belonging to the UAE in the transitional Republic of South Yemen. Concurrently, the Kingdom launched a media campaign aimed at the ruling family in Abu Dhabi across all state channels. According to Jonathan Edri, co-founder of the “Our Legacy – The Founding Grandchildren” movement, Saudi Arabia is explicitly turning away from Israel and the United States while initiating talks on establishing a defense alliance with Turkey and Pakistan.

Vision 2030 and Internal Challenges

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman aims to advance his Vision 2030, which seeks to create a more entrepreneurial state less reliant on oil, increase women’s participation, and diminish the power of religious leaders. However, there are indications that this vision is not unfolding as planned. Every time the vision confronts reality, bin Salman seems compelled to reassess his strategy. It’s essential to view the events in Saudi Arabia through the lens of the Crown Prince’s perspective, rather than interpreting him as a moderate by Western standards.

Normalization with Israel: A Missed Opportunity

Bin Salman’s push for normalization with Israel stemmed from his inability to secure favorable relations with Washington. Following the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, he was sidelined in the White House until Donald Trump’s second term commenced. His interest in establishing ties with Israel was not motivated by a pro-Zionist stance, but rather by his strategic challenges with Iran and the complicated dynamics with President Joe Biden’s administration.

New Alliances and Strategic Calculations

Recently, Iran has faced internal difficulties, and during this period, Trump offered bin Salman a protective alliance, fulfilling some of the Crown Prince’s fundamental security objectives. Internally, bin Salman faces obstacles; his vision isn’t progressing as he envisistartd, but his successes abroad allow him to pivot away from Israel.

The newly proposed defense alliance is significant, as bin Salman recognizes Pakistan’s potential as a Sunni nation capable of providing a nuclear umbrella, appealing to Saudi sentiments. Likewise, Turkey holds the promise of security and economic benefits for Saudi Arabia, making this strategic shift coherent from his standpoint.

In summary, the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East sees Saudi Arabia recalibrating its alliances and distancing itself from Israel as it confronts new external and internal challenges.