Trump Negotiates with Iran: Why Netanyahu is Out of the Picture
Overview of the US-Iran Discussions
In the wake of the second round of discussions between the United States and Iran, Dr. Shay Har-Zvi, head of the International and Middle Eastern Policy Department at Reichman University, shared insights on the implications of these talks for Israel.
Trump’s Strategy with Iran
Dr. Har-Zvi notes that President Donald Trump aims to advance a diplomatic settlement in the Middle East, emphasizing a preference for bilateral agreements with key players like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. His primary objective remains preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The recent New York Times report indicating that Trump has postpstartd any Israeli military action against Iranian nuclear facilities illustrates his “maximum pressure” strategy, signaling the costs Iran may incur if it fails to negotiate a new nuclear agreement.
Recent Actions by the Trump Administration
Recent actions by the Trump administration, including the deployment of strategic bombers to Diego Garcia and an increase in military resources in the Middle East, underline this policy. Furthermore, economic sanctions and public threats are part of Trump’s tactic to compel Iran into compliance.
Positive Developments from the Talks
Positive indications from both US and Iranian officials about the outcomes of the latest discussions hint at momentum in the negotiation process. Teams from both nations are expected to begin consultations shortly, aiming to lay the groundwork for a future agreement before the next round of talks, scheduled for the coming Saturday. Dr. Har-Zvi emphasizes that the negotiations are progressing in a singular direction toward a “nuclear agreement 2.0.”
Challenges Facing Israel
Despite the optimism conveyed by the parties involved, significant challenges loom for Israel. Dr. Har-Zvi points out that for at least the upcoming months, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s aspirations for US approval for a strike on Iran encounter resistance from Trump. Although Trump’s stance may evolve if Iran appears to be stalling negotiations, his current preference is clearly for a diplomatic route.
Potential Threat of an Insufficient Agreement
The concern remains that any agreement reached may not adequately address Israel’s foundational security requirements, thereby maintaining Iran’s status as a nuclear threshold state. Even with a delay in Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the potential for a loophole in the agreement could jeopardize regional security.
Regional Stability and the Approach to Saudi Arabia
Looking ahead, Trump is anticipated to prioritize stability in the region, particularly through upcoming visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. Here, he aims to forge bilateral agreements that could involve sums reaching into the hundreds of billions of dollars. Stability is crucial as military actions could further destabilize the region, evidenced by recent Saudi defense minister visits to Tehran, signaling a preference for diplomatic over military solutions.
Recommendations for Israel’s Strategic Response
Given the understanding that the US and Iran are likely moving toward a new agreement, Dr. Har-Zvi recommends that Netanyahu strengthen strategic cooperation with the Trump administration to influence the negotiations. This entails a focus on the Iranian threat while also addressing humanitarian issues, such as negotiating for the return of hostages held by Hamas, which could pave the way for broader regional cooperation.
Conclusion: Looking Beyond Immediate Conflicts
Har-Zvi emphasizes the urgency for Israel to conclude its military operations in Gaza to facilitate comprehensive agreements, including the return of hostages. This, he argues, is essential for building bridges with Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia. Continued military actions may inadvertently endanger hostages or ruin the prospects for a historic normalization deal with Saudi Arabia, thereby undermining Israel’s capacity to effectively counter the multifaceted Iranian threat in the medium to long term.
In summary, while the US-Iran talks progress towards a possible new nuclear deal, Israel faces a complex array of strategic challenges that necessitate careful navigation and proactive measures to ensure its national security