The Recruitment Exemption Law and Coalition Crisis: Threats and Efforts for Coordinated Action

Coalition Crisis Reaches a Tipping Point

The ongoing crisis in the coalition surrounding the Recruitment Exemption Law has reached a critical juncture. Tomorrow, the leaders of the Degel HaTorah party will convene to make a decisive chostart regarding their strategy, and it is expected that without a substantial change, the leader of the Lithuanian faction will direct the party to withdraw from the government. However, a mere withdrawal from the government may not immediately destabilize it, potentially granting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu additional time.

As the conflict in Gaza continues, the uncertainty surrounding the Recruitment Exemption Law prompts urgent discussions among coalition members. Tonight’s meeting with the ultra-Orthodox representatives comes as many express skepticism about its potential effectiveness. It is anticipated that Yuli Edelstein, the chairman of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, will present key principles regarding the recruitment law, although these principles are unlikely to be acceptable to the ultra-Orthodox parties.

Current State of Affairs

Internal discussions reveal a consensus that a recruitment law will likely not come to fruition, raising the question of next steps. The Rebbe of Gur has already instructed his followers to advocate for a law to dissolve the Knesset. In this context, it is important that all factions of the ultra-Orthodox Knesset members are united, as the recruitment law is not a trivial matter for their community.

Rabbi Moshe Hirsch, a leader in the Lithuanian public, has indicated that a lack of progress on this matter may prompt support for leaving the government entirely. It’s crucial to differentiate between dispersing the Knesset and withdrawing from the government-two distinct actions. If they withdraw from the government without dismantling the Knesset, it would not result in an immediate collapse, which could afford Netanyahu some respite.

Potential Developments in the Coming Weeks

The next 50 days are expected to be filled with significant threats and impacts. Members such as Glick can individually withdraw from the government, while others might oppose legislation, but all eyes are predominantly on Aryeh Deri-a key figure in determining whether to continue with the coalition. Deri’s decisions could lead to the coalition’s dismantling; however, he currently retains the option to not trigger this outcome.

The urgent requirement at hand remains a law for dissolving the Knesset. Although the process is expedited when consensus is reached, there are known precedents of legislation being passed swiftly. Even if the coalition successfully passes the dissolution law, it does not guarantee the end of tensions surrounding the Recruitment Exemption Law, which might simply lead to continued strife through alternative means.

Diverging Views Within the Coalition

Close associates of Netanyahu are believed to be under the impression that the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee is nearing consensus on the recruitment law, despite contradictory claims from ultra-Orthodox representatives. Whether Netanyahu misjudges the situation or is attempting to buy time for himself, this anxiety has permeated the ultra-Orthodox community.

With only 50 days remaining until the Knesset goes into recess, the upcoming discussion among the Degel HaTorah rabbis will focus on aligning strategies against the backdrop of the ongoing recruitment law crisis. The ultra-Orthodox factions prefer a legislative approach to dissolve the Knesset rather than withdrawing from the government, as the latter would entail conceding government positions and involve losing key representation.

Missed Opportunities for the Opposition

Interestingly, a member of the United Torah Judaism party noted a significant oversight by the opposition, suggesting that if they had prepared a dissolution bill to present soon after the rabbinical discussions, there was a strong chance it would have passed in a preliminary vote. The opposition’s failure to act on this prior to today’s session highlights a missed opportunity that could have shifted the current dynamics.

As events unfold, the mounting threats from the ultra-Orthodox parties appear to be losing some impact. The repeated ultimatums and fluctuating timelines create uncertainty regarding the actual resolve of the coalition members. Overall, while the ultra-Orthodox parties continue to assert their intentions, skepticism about their actions is growing