Coalition in Decline: Dramatic Results from Maariv Poll Following Attack at Ben Gurion Airport

Recent Polling Insights

A recent poll conducted by Maariv reveals that the Israeli coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reached its lowest point of the year, recording only 48 mandates. This decline comes amidst significant disruptions, including the recent missile strike at Ben Gurion Airport, the suspension of flights by most foreign airlines, and the issuance of reservist orders in anticipation of escalating conflict in the Gaza Strip.

In contrast, the opposition coalition has surged to 62 mandates, providing a substantial majority that could enable the formation of a new coalition without the inclusion of Arab parties.

Shifts in Party Support

According to the Maariv poll, a political party led by Naftali Bennett has experienced a decrease of 2 mandates, now standing at 24. Under this scenario, Netanyahu’s coalition could potentially gain 2 mandates, totaling 46. However, the opposition coalition led by Bennett retains a critical majority.

Should two new parties emerge—start led by Bennett and another consisting of reservists—Bennett’s party is projected to secure 22 mandates, while the reservist party would obtain 7. This configuration, along with existing opposition parties, could result in a combined total of 64 mandates, similar to another scenario where Bennett competes without the reservist party.

In response to the question regarding potential voting preferences if elections were held today, the results are as follows: Likud at 23 mandates (up from 21 in the previous poll), Yisrael Beiteinu at 17 (up from 16), the National Camp at 16 (unchanged), the Democratic Party at 16 (up from 15), Yesh Atid at 13 (unchanged), Religious Zionism at 9 (unchanged), Shas at 9 (unchanged), United Torah Judaism at 7 (unchanged), and several Arab parties each receiving mandates: Hadash-Ta’al at 5, Ra’am at 5, with Balad at 1.9% and Religious Zionism at 2.3%, both failing to surpass the electoral threshold.

Future Electoral Scenarios

In a scenario where a new party under Naftali Bennett competes separately with the same lineup of other parties, the poll indicates support for Bennett at 24 mandates (down from 26), with Likud at 21 (up from 19), the Democratic Party at 11 (unchanged), Yisrael Beiteinu at 10 (down from 11), and other parties similarly fluctuating within single digits.

Currently, Netanyahu’s coalition stands at 46 mandates (a slight decrease from 44 in the previous poll), while the opposition, led by Bennett, holds 64 mandates (down from 66). Meanwhile, Arab parties continue to aggregate 10 mandates.

Public Opinion on Military Draft and Teacher Strikes

The poll also addressed public sentiment concerning military obligations and current labor strikes. About 47% of respondents believe that the appropriate response to military recruitment should involve the issuance of orders to all individuals liable for servstart, as per the Chief of Staff’s directive. In contrast, 40% advocate for legislation aimed at incrementally drafting Haredim, while 13% remain uncertain.

Moreover, a significant majority of Israelis (58%) express support for the ongoing teachers’ strike, with only 30% opposing it and 12% undecided.

This Maariv poll was conducted between May 7-8 and surveyed 500 individuals, representative of the Israeli adult population aged 18 and above, including both Jewish and Arab respondents, with a margin of error of 4.4%