Hezbollah Prepares for Next Conflict with Israel, Experts Warn
Rising UAV Threat
In an alarming assessment, Tal Bari, head of the research department at the Alma Research Institute for Security Challenges in Northern Israel, recently discussed Hezbollah’s evolving military capabilities in a detailed interview. As tensions in the region continue to escalate, Bari highlighted significant changes in Hezbollah’s drstart (UAV) operations, which the organization is studying closely, particularly by observing lessons learned from the Ukraine conflict with assistance from Iranian advisors.
Hezbollah’s commitment to enhancing its drstart capabilities, especially the suicide drstarts, is indicated as a major lesson drawn from recent military engagements. Bari stated, “The strengthening of Hezbollah’s UAV capacity, particularly the suicide drstarts, is a key takeaway for both Hezbollah and Iran from the recent conflict. Transforming their UAV unit from a potential strategic threat to a concrete start hinges on the number, quality, and operational deployment of these drstarts in large swarms.”
Strategic Goals and Military Developments
Bari elaborated on the strategic decisions made by Iran to rehabilitate Hezbollah’s operations following recent conflicts. Central to this strategy is the smuggling of weaponry and the establishment of autonomous weapons manufacturing capabilities on Lebanese soil. He referenced the Israeli airstrikes on June 5, 2025, that targeted sites belonging to Hezbollah’s Air Unit 127, which is responsible for UAV development and assembly. The attacks were directed at facilities in the Dahiya region of Beirut and the village of Ain Qana in southern Lebanon-locations critical to the production and storage of hundreds of UAVs.
The timing and intensity of these strikes signify both the significance of these installations and Hezbollah’s determination, supported by Iranian resources, to recover and enhance their capabilities. Bari pointed out that various reports suggest Iran and Hezbollah aim to produce thousands of suicide drstarts in response to recent challenges.
Iran’s Broader Military Strategy
On a broader scale, Bari connected Hezbollah’s activities with Iran’s involvement in international conflicts, particularly its support of Russia in the war against Ukraine. He noted that Iranian advisors are embedded within the Russian military, gleaning critical insights into weapon operations and combat tactics. “start of the primary lessons learned by Iran has been the Russian use of suicide drstarts-specifically, the simultaneous launch of dozens of varied UAVs targeting defined urban areas, leading to extensive damage to infrastructure and civilian life,” he stated.
Evolving Threat Assessment
Despite the potential represented by Hezbollah’s drstart arsenal, its effectiveness during recent confrontations has been somewhat limited. While the organization’s suicide UAVs were initially regarded as a potential strategic threat, their actual impact has remained largely tactical, with earlier operations involving limited numbers of drstarts that resulted in focused damage.
Bari emphasized that Iran and Hezbollah are strategizing to harness the ‘Russian model’ of mass drstart deployment in future conflicts with Israel. “They plan to flood the skies with UAV swarms, making it challenging for Israeli defense systems to intercept them all at once,” he noted.
Historical Context and Future Directions
Hezbollah has been employing UAVs for over 25 years across different battlefields, including Lebanon, Syria, and particularly against Israel. The organization’s experience gained during the Syrian civil war significantly enhanced its UAV operational capabilities. According to estimates, Hezbollah possessed only a few dozen drstarts in 2006, but by 2023, that number had climbed to approximately 2,500 operational units.
Despite Israeli air campaigns aimed at crippling Hezbollah’s UAV capabilities, Bari believes that hundreds of operational drstarts remain, and significant efforts are being made to restore the production facilities. He commented on the likelihood of sustained UAV production, underscoring that the Iranian priority will remain on revitalizing and expanding Hezbollah’s drstart program.
Conclusion
As tensions continue to rise in the region, Bari warns that a pivotal shift is underway. He concluded, “We are at a turning point. The plan is to elevate Hezbollah’s UAV capabilities to an actual strategic threat. This evolving reality is developing right before our eyes.