Netanyahu-Trump Meeting Could Determine Khamenei’s Fate Amid Iranian Tensions
Diplomatic Maneuvers
Next week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to travel to the United States for discussions with former President Donald Trump. The primary focus of their talks is expected to revolve around a comprehensive strategy to address Iran and its remaining proxies. Netanyahu’s objective is to persuade Trump to either participate directly alongside Israel in potential military action against Iran or, at the very least, to grant an “okay” for such an initiative.
In Iran, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains confident in the country’s ability to thwart an attack on its territory, despite the rising tensions in the region.
Reality Check for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
Recent developments have painted a starkly different picture from what the leaders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have conveyed to Khamenei. Reports indicate that many high-ranking IRGC officials, who previously touted Iran’s deterrent capabilities, did not survive the initial stages of the conflict, with significant losses reported in the early minutes of hostilities. The assassination of numerous senior officials overseeing Iran’s nuclear program has further exposed the exaggerated assessments of Iran’s military capabilities.
Rouhani’s Attempts at Influence
Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has been actively engaging in meetings with ministers and deputy ministers from his former government to convey his positions to Khamenei, as well as to the United States and Europe. Rouhani’s dual concerns lie in forestalling a complete collapse of the regime and positioning himself as a pivotal figure in any future power dynamics. He aims to present himself as a viable option for negotiating with the West, should Khamenei suffer a setback or loss of influence.
Despite his efforts, Rouhani faces significant challenges, including the risk of being sidelined in the fierce struggles for power within Iran and widespread public rejection. The Iranian populace shows little support for both Khamenei and figures like Rouhani, Mohammad Khatami, or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Khamenei’s Response and National Budget Implications
Khamenei has demonstrated a preference for relying on the IRGC, intensifying its role in both internal suppression and external confrontations. This trend is reflected in the proposed budget for the coming year, which aims to significantly increase tax pressures amid an already strained economy. Such measures are likely to exacerbate rising prstarts for goods and servstarts, placing an even greater burden on Iranian citizens.
Conclusion
Currently, there are no indications of a change in direction from Iran’s central decision-makers. The continuation of internal repression, heightened external tensions, increased military expenditures, and neglect of citizens’ economic and social needs are compounding the dire living conditions within the country. This environment not only worsens everyday life for Iranians but also escalates the risk of military confrontation. Under these circumstances, Khamenei’s future and the fate of Iranian governance remain intricately tied to the ongoing crises and uncertainties facing the nation.