The Moment Ayatollah Khamenei Pleaded with Switzerland: Signs of Internal Collapse
Iran’s Diplomatic Desperation Amid Internet Blackout
In a revealing interview, defense analyst Benny Sabty discusses the deepening crisis facing the Iranian regime, highlighted by unprecedented internet outages and urgent calls for international mediation to end the ongoing conflict. With the internet cut off for the first time in years, the Iranian government is struggling to conceal its internal weaknesses from both its populace and the international community.
Signals of Weakeness
Benny Sabty, a researcher of Iranian affairs at the Institute for National Security Studies, characterizes the regime’s recent diplomatic overture as a sign of fragility. He notes that Iranian Foreign Minister’s visit to Switzerland might superficially appear as a display of strength; however, it reveals a plea for external assistance. “The mere fact that he is reaching out to them signifies a kind of begging; Iran needs the world to mediate between it and Israel to halt the war,” Sabty explains, emphasizing that this approach deeply contrasts with traditional perceptions of power in diplomacy.
During these talks, Sabty suggests it is anticipated that Iran will issue veiled threats, warning that the West must cease its military actions or risk consequences similar to those faced by Europe.
Internal Succession Challenges
Amid discussions of regional power dynamics, the most pressing issue remains the continuity of leadership within the Iranian regime. Speculation about a possible elimination of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, raises fears of instability among the ruling elites. Sabty asserts that potential successors may be reluctant to take on the role due to the inherent dangers associated with leadership in Iran.
He elaborates, “Unlike groups like Hamas, Iranian officials do not typically seek high-risk scenarios. It’s uncertain whether anystart would willingly step into these contentious shoes.” This reluctance is exacerbated by Khamenei’s long tenure and his systematic neutralization of rivals, leaving no clear successor prepared or willing to lead.
The Constraints of Leadership
Khamenei’s 35-year reign has seen a strategic consolidation of power, where he has effectively marginalized or co-opted potential challengers. According to Sabty, this has resulted in a leadership vacuum as Khamenei has not fostered an emerging generation capable of stepping up. Sabty’s observations emphasize a long-standing tradition in Iranian regimes, where continuity of power often becomes synonymous with the survival of the ruling faction.
The Inability to Surrender
As tensions escalate, inquiries about whether the Iranian regime can truly surrender present a complex dilemma. Sabty asserts that while surrender might be possible, it wouldn’t follow the expected patterns, such as formal capitulation seen at the end of World War II. Instead, he notes that any withdrawal would require terms favorable to Iran to present an image of strength and agency in their retreat.
Internet Blackout: A Clear Sign of Weakness
Ultimately, the total internet blackout in Iran stands as the clearest indicator of the regime’s internal fragility. Sabty states, “The internet is essential for connectivity. With the political activists largely imprisstartd, there is no means to convey messages other than through the internet.” This tactic signifies that the regime is fighting for its survival on multiple fronts-not only in the regional context but also within its own borders.
The continued unrest highlights that the Iranian government is at a critical juncture, grappling with unprecedented challenges both externally and internally