Understanding Iran: Insights from Professor Lior Sternfeld’s New Book

Background on Recent Developments in Iran

In light of the recent unrest in Iran, which has gained significant media attention, Professor Lior Sternfeld, an expert on Iranian affairs and a historian, has published a new book titled Iran: Life Itself. The book delves into the intricacies of Iranian society, tracing the roots of its struggles against the regime throughout history and analyzing the recent wave of protests.

Speaking in a government meeting, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that Israel is closely monitoring developments in Iran. While acknowledging Iran’s military capabilities, he stated, “It is far-fetched to think that Iran plans to use nuclear weapons to erase Israel.”

Iranian Fears and Misinformation

Professor Sternfeld argues that much of Israel’s anxiety about Iran stems from misunderstanding and misinformation, particularly after the fall of the Shah. He recalls a sensational headline from the past claiming that Iran was building concentration camps for Jews, despite a Jewish lawyer’s role in drafting Iran’s constitution at that time. He notes the cycle of fear regarding Iran’s nuclear ambitions, pointing out that these narratives often lack a foundation in credible knowledge.

“There is no diversity of vostarts in the discourse surrounding Iran; the opposition is weak and unable to counter the prevailing narratives of fear,” Sternfeld explains. He stresses the need for a more nuanced thought process regarding Iran, which is often overshadowed by alarmist perspectives.

The Cultural Context

Having devoted extensive years to studying Iran, completing a master’s and a doctorate, and learning Persian, Sternfeld insists that understanding Iran’s history requires a grasp of its culture and traumas. He believes that the lingering memories of foreign intervention in Iran’s past heighten society’s skepticism towards external forces. He highlights that current events often evoke historical parallels for the Iranian populace, fostering deeper mistrust.

His book, Iran: Life Itself, aims to offer insights into the political dynamics between the state and society, the coalition shifts among clerics, the middle class, and bazaar merchants, as well as the roots of Iran’s animosity towards the West. Moreover, he discusses the bilateral relations between Israel and Iran during the Shah’s rule, linking them to the Islamic revolution’s alignment with the Palestinian cause.

Professor Sternfeld’s Personal Journey

Residing in the United States for 16 years with his wife and three daughters, Sternfeld teaches history and Jewish studies at Penn State University. He originally moved for doctoral studies and has since established his career there. The idea for his book emerged during the initial COVID-19 lockdown when he initiated an online course on modern Iranian history, which garnered significant interest.

Despite initially estimating that writing the book would take four months, he ultimately spent five years researching and drafting it, striving to make complex topics accessible to a general audience. The ongoing political situations continually influenced the content, prompting updates and revisions up until the book’s completion.

Socioeconomic Challenges Facing Iran

Sternfeld notes that socio-economic conditions in rural areas have worsened over the past decade, with residents increasingly struggling for subsidies. In contrast, populations in major cities like Tehran aspire for more freedom and political rights, alongside a restoration of their previously enjoyed standard of living. This dynamic reflects a diversity of objectives among Iran’s populace, where demands for cultural and community enrichment remain strong.

He observes that many Iranians express pride in their civilization, heritage, and identity, distinct from the current theocratic regime. “The Iranian identity encompasses its minorities and goes beyond the Islamic Republic,” Sternfeld affirms.

Potential Outcomes for Iran’s Future

Looking ahead, Sternfeld assesses the possibility of regime change, suggesting that while there is potential for change, there is currently no cohesive opposition capable of orchestrating a structured transition. He notes the ongoing campaigns to promote the return of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah, though he disputes that Iranians would mobilize in significant numbers for this cause.

In the short term, he warns that the repression of protests may succeed temporarily; however, the Revolutionary Guards, a pivotal economic force, might opt for a quiet coup to maintain their financial and industrial assets while reorienting Iran towards the West.

On the other hand, the possibility of a successful democratic uprising remains slim. The most significant fear among Iranians is the prospect of societal collapse and civil war, akin to the chaos witnessed in Syria and Libya, which could result in unpredictable outcomes.

Sternfeld concludes with a caution against missteps that could lead to instability, emphasizing the critical importance of navigating the current landscape carefully to avoid potential chaos.