Day start of Conflict: Key Trends and the Fate of Iranian General
Slow Pace of Attacks from Iran
In the initial day of military conflict, Iran has demonstrated a slower rate of missile launches than anticipated by Israeli defense estimates. The volume is notably less than heavy barrages from previous confrontations, such as last year’s exchanges, when hundreds of missiles were fired. According to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), approximately 50 missiles were launched in the first two barrages, with additional isolated salvos in the days that followed. The Iranian military has opted for a more cautious deployment strategy, highlighting a potential effort to conserve resources for a prolonged engagement.
Ineffective Air Defense Saturation
Iran’s recent missile attacks were not supplemented by large swarms of drstarts, as had been expected. Instead, they launched smaller, sporadic drstart strikes that were intercepted, which meant their efforts did not significantly overwhelm the air defense systems of the IDF and the United States military. Despite sustaining selective strikes with limited damage, the Iranian forces have failed to compromise the air defense capabilities of Israel and its allies. U.S. warships have been dispatched to the region to support this defensive effort.
Hezbollah’s Limited Participation
Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group funded by Iran, has not yet engaged in the conflict despite possessing thousands of precision-guided missiles. The IDF had predicted that Hezbollah would participate in limited retaliatory strikes, similar to its sporadic support for Hamas since October 8, 2023. However, up to now, there has been no rocket fire from Hezbollah. This restraint is notable as the organization has not issued threats of retaliation even in its condemnations of Israeli operations.
Command and Control Challenges Within Iranian Forces
IDF assessments indicate that a significant shake-up in Iranian command structures may have hampered their operational effectiveness. Early in the conflict, senior Iranian air force leaders were reported killed, followed by substantial attacks on missile launch sites, affecting Iran’s ability to maintain situational awareness and command its forces effectively. Furthermore, it appears Iranian strategists recognize the conflict may extend over several weeks, prompting a strategy focused on resource conservation for future engagements.
The Role of Quds Force
The Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is reportedly making an unprecedented effort to coordinate its various affiliated groups throughout the Middle East against Israel. This encompasses Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the West Bank and Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and numerous pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq, all of which are equipped with medium-range Grad rockets. These entities, funded by Tehran, were ostensibly prepared to create a multi-front crisis for Israel.
Uncertainty Surrounding General Qaani
Amid these developments, the fate of Quds Force commander Ismail Qaani, a relatively low-profile figure in the Iranian military landscape, remains uncertain. There have been unverified reports regarding his demise, yet no official Israeli confirmation has been made. The dynamic around his leadership role is crucial, as he is intended to orchestrate Iran’s regional strategy. Meanwhile, the IDF remains on high alert for potential escalations as Quds Force affiliates attempt to mobilize against Israel.
As the situation evolves, military analysts will continue to monitor the responses from various factions involved and the broader implications for regional stability