“Americans Won’t Forget This”: Iranian Move Could End US-Israel Relations
US Involvement in Conflict with Iran
Former head of the National Security Council and senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, Major General (Res.) Yaakov Amidror, recently discussed American involvement in the ongoing conflict with Iran in an interview on Radio 103FM. Amidror addressed the complexities surrounding the situation and emphasized caution amid rising tensions.
Cautious Optimism Amid Ongoing Conflict
Amidror urged against premature celebration of any developments, stating, “I don’t believe we should celebrate in the middle of a war. Though it is a good thing that the Americans took this action, we still have a long way to go.” He shared insights from his learning experiences indicating that celebration is more appropriate at the conclusion of hostilities. Amidror added, “If a good piece of news comes, we should express gratitude for the event itself.”
The former General acknowledged the positive implications of recent American actions toward dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities but expressed concerns about the long-term implications of the US engagement in the conflict. He posed essential questions regarding America’s future stance, including whether the US involvement would be viewed as a debacle or a success.
The Broader Implications of Military Deployments
Discussing the potential outcomes of the situation, Amidror reflected on Iran’s nuclear stockpile prior to the war. He posed the question of whether evidence of any enrichment could be detected, acknowledging that the reality of US military presence-particularly aircraft carriers-gives the US significant leverage against Iran. He cautistartd, “The Iranians understand that any misstep could lead to severe consequences. The strength demonstrated by US naval capabilities can result in a substantial degradation of Iranian military capabilities across various fronts.”
Amidror further highlighted the overarching American interests at play, suggesting that major powers prefer to resolve matters swiftly to avoid prolonged conflicts. He noted, “There are various global concerns, like Taiwan and Ukraine, which might influence American preferences towards a closed agreement. A favorable agreement is beneficial to us.”
Geopolitical Ramifications: Taiwan and Ukraine
Expanding on the regional dynamics, Amidror asserted that while the conflict’s impact on Ukraine might be minimal, its implications for Taiwan are far-reaching. He indicated that the US’s commitment to a longstanding ally demonstrates its resolve in addressing regional threats, distinguishing the contexts of conflict in Taiwan from those in the Middle East.
Russia’s Role and Regional Tensions
When addressing Russia’s limited participation in the Iranian situation, Amidror remarked, “The Russians possess a minor role. They primarily act as energy suppliers to China, but the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has severely restricted their capabilities.” Drawing from his personal interactions, he emphasized Russian President Vladimir Putin’s concern for Russian speakers in the region.
Amidror outlined a potential scenario where escalating tensions could spiral out of control, with fears that Iranian aggression toward Americans could drag the US deeper into conflict, resulting in lost lives without significant victories. “The repercussions could adversely affect American-Israeli relations, particularly since America would remember the costs associated with former President Trump’s entanglement in this situation,” he warned.
The Challenge of Regional Actors
Addressing the role of regional actors such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, Amidror expressed skepticism about their ability to escalate the situation significantly. He suggested that ongoing hardships faced by Hezbollah might lead to calculations that could temporarily stabilize the conflict. However, he acknowledged that a well-timed attack by the Iranians could disrupt the delicate balance, prompting a stronger military response from the US.
The discussion underscores the volatile nature of geopolitics in the Middle East and emphasizes the significant stakes for both the US and Israel. As the conflict unfolds, careful navigation of alliances and military strategies will be crucial to avoid further escalation and preserve regional stability