Tensions Escalate in Israel as Ongoing Conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah Persist
Overview of Current Military Engagements
On paper, Israel is under a ceasefire agreement with both Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, significant military actions took place just yesterday, including the elimination of a senior Hamas military figure and airstrikes in Baalbek, deep within Lebanese territory. Concurrently, there is increasing concern regarding Iran’s military preparations, with fears of a potential confrontation looming.
Intensifying Israeli Strikes on Hezbollah
Recently, Israel has escalated its military operations against Hezbollah, citing the inadequacy of the Lebanese Army and government in upholding the terms of the ceasefire and disarming the terrorist organization. Israeli attacks have been primarily focused in northern Lebanon, particularly north of the Litani River and in Baalbek. American involvement has waned recently, drawing criticism from the international community for not closely overseeing the ceasefire’s implementation.
In Lebanon, the U.S. has appointed a new ambassador, Michel Aissa, with expectations that he will press the Lebanese government to take the ceasefire seriously. Moreover, the U.S. canceled the visit of the Lebanese Army commander to Washington due to his remark labeling Israel an enemy. Analysts in Israel note that a significant portion of the Lebanese military is comprised of Shiite Muslims, complicating confrontations with Hezbollah, which is also Shiite. Additionally, low wages-approximately $200 per month-compared to the higher salaries received by Hezbollah operatives have led many Lebanese soldiers to seek supplemental employment, resulting in diminished motivation to engage with militants.
Economic Hardship in Lebanon
The economic situation in Lebanon continues to deteriorate, fostering a climate of potential civil unrest that limits radical actions. Hezbollah has leveraged this instability to strengthen its foothold, despite ongoing arms smuggling operations. While Syria has made some efforts to curb these smuggling operations following the Assad regime’s decline, its capability remains weak. Israel is committed to preventing Lebanon from reverting to its pre-war state and has adopted a policy of preemptive strikes rather than waiting for violations to escalate.
In recent days, Israel has initiated a series of continuous strikes, targeting Hezbollah installations and neutralizing militants. In retaliation, Hezbollah has promised not to withstand further Israeli airstrikes, prompting the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to prepare for possible engagements.
The Situation in Gaza
While Israel would like to apply similar tactics used in Lebanon to manage the Gaza Strip, the circumstances are notably more complex. The U.S. intends to transition to the second phase of the ceasefire, which Israel opposes, particularly as Hamas has yet to return the remains of three deceased hostages. These include Dror Or, Sergeant Raanan Guily, and Thai citizen Sontisak Rintaluck. Israeli assessments suggest that Hamas is not making sufficient efforts to search for or return these individuals.
To assert control, Israel has adopted a policy of retaliatory strikes against any violations from Gaza. Following incidents where militants crossed into Israeli lines and fired at troops, IDF has confirmed continued operations throughout the territory, including the recent killing of Abu Abdullah al-Khadi, a senior commander in Hamas’s military wing. Additionally, all 17 militants who emerged from tunnels in Rafah, under Israeli monitoring, were either neutralized or captured.
International Intervention and Future Actions
The transition to the next phase of the ceasefire will necessitate a series of measures to ease conditions in the Gaza Strip, including the opening of the Rafah crossing and increased humanitarian aid. It is anticipated that the establishment of an international stabilization force, approved by the UN Security Council, could intensify calls for these measures. The force is expected to comprise predominantly Arab and Muslim soldiers, avoiding Western contingents to minimize perceptions of foreign occupation.
Despite looming challenges in deploying this force, it is becoming increasingly clear that if the U.S. is unable to disarm Hamas willingly, Israel may have no chostart but to proceed with its own operations.
Concerns Regarding Iran
Iran’s ongoing efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile program raise alarms in Israel regarding potential attacks on the Israeli home front. The international community is increasingly wary of a miscalculation that could lead to a preemptive strike by either Israel or Iran. Efforts are underway to prevent such a scenario, although distrust remains high, with Iran suspicious of any Israeli military maneuvers.
In Israel, there is a growing sentiment that, despite the presence of American forces at the joint command in Kiriyat Gat, there is a lack of awareness in Washington regarding the volatility of the current situation.
As tensions simmer on multiple fronts-Gaza, Lebanon, and the specter of Iran-Israel finds itself in a precarious position with no clear resolution in sight.