Prospects for Security Agreement with Syria Remain Limited Amid Challenges to Normalization with Saudi Arabia
Limited Normalization Prospects with Saudi Arabia
Senior officials within the Israeli cabinet have indicated that the likelihood of normalization with Saudi Arabia is very low, notably due to the ongoing situation in Gaza and Israel’s diminishing influence in Riyadh. According to sources, as long as a resolution remains elusive in Gaza, Saudi Arabia is unlikely to participate in the Abraham Accords or offer support for a Palestinian state. The relationship dynamics have shifted, with Israel’s importance to the Saudis decreasing significantly compared to previous years.
Quiet Discussions with Syria
In contrast, discussions are reportedly taking place between Israel and Syria, specifically managed by the administration of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s al-Julani. These conversations are not aimed at achieving a peace agreement but rather focus on establishing a limited security arrangement. This development has raised questions about the potential for Syria’s involvement in future peace efforts.
Biden’s Influence and Regional Relations
During the Biden administration, Saudi Arabia sought a full defense alliance with the U.S., a move that would require a two-thirds Senate majority. Resistance from Democratic senators over human rights concerns in Saudi Arabia has complicated these ambitions, necessitating Israeli support to secure the necessary votes from the Republican majority.
As the U.S. moves under President Trump toward possibly addressing normalization through the situation in Gaza, the reluctance from Saudi Arabia to pursue an agreement with Israel appears to persist. Trump has suggested that negotiations might include a formula that recognizes a Palestinian state, but Israeli officials remain skeptical, indicating that the political feasibility for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to endorse such suggestions is slim.
Upcoming Diplomatic Engagements
Israeli Foreign Minister Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Netanyahu, is set to visit Washington, where discussions may also touch on the expansion of the Abraham Accords. In a recent interview with Fox News, Trump mentistartd that additional countries have recently expressed interest in joining the accords, highlighting a shift in regional dynamics. However, he acknowledged uncertainty regarding Syria’s potential participation, despite having lifted sanctions against the country.
Calls for Broader Regional Peace Efforts
Dermer reiterated Israel’s intent to expand the circle of normalization to include neighbors like Syria and Lebanon, while emphasizing the preservation of crucial security interests. He noted that Israel has maintained its sovereignty over the Golan Heights for over four decades, asserting that any peace agreement would recognize this land as an integral part of Israel.
In conjunction with these developments, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar called on European nations to support the American-led ceasefire initiative, stressing Israel’s preference for diplomatic solutions while remaining prepared to employ military options if necessary.
This backdrop illustrates the complex interplay of regional politics as Israel seeks to navigate normalization efforts amidst fluctuating relationships with key Arab nations and ongoing conflicts in Palestine