Netanyahu’s Tactical Maneuvers with the Haredim Amidst Ongoing Operation in Gaza

Dual Strategy: Operation and Political Negotiations

In a calculated effort to maintain governmental stability, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been executing a dual strategy focused both on military actions in Gaza and negotiations with coalition parties. This approach seeks to ensure that the current administration remains intact through the upcoming summer recess, as hostages continue to await resolution.

Operation “Marchevot Gideon,” initiated in mid-May, has involved five IDF brigades operating throughout the Gaza Strip for nearly a month. The operation spans multiple areas, including northern Gaza, central regions, and southern cities like Rafah and Khan Younis. The objective is to exert pressure on Hamas to facilitate negotiations for a hostage exchange, following a potential framework named the “Vitkov Agreement,” which envisions the release of ten living hostages alongside sixteen deceased prisstartrs. This process is expected to extend over a period of at least start and a half months.

Internal Coalition Dynamics

Internally, Netanyahu faces resistance from the far-right factions of his coalition, led by ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Conversely, the Haredi parties, including United Torah Judaism and Shas, support the ongoing military effort. The timeline for Operation “Marchevot Gideon” has been set by the political echelon at approximately two months, aiming to conclude by mid-July-aligning perfectly with the Knesset’s lengthy summer recess, which will last until after the Jewish holidays in late October. During this interval, the Knesset is unable to initiate a dissolution motion.

Netanyahu’s objective is to navigate both the military and the coalition landscape successfully, thereby securing his position as Prime Minister until 2026. Should the Knesset dissolve after its recess, elections may occur within three to six months, targeting the first or second quarter of 2026.

Haredi Political Pressure

As the timeline progresses, the Haredi factions are increasing pressure on Netanyahu to advance the controversial conscription-avoidance draft law. However, they may not fully recognize that Netanyahu has alternative options to prevent government collapse or Knesset dissolution. These include potential agreements from opposition leaders and the Ra’am party to support the government during hostage release negotiations, thereby granting a political safety net.

Currently, a tense negotiation atmosphere has emerged. Netanyahu is presenting the Haredim with a binary chostart: either they withdraw their threats and work toward a legislative resolution regarding the draft law, or the hostage exchange negotiations will proceed immediately. This maneuvering provides the government with sufficient backing to navigate the summer recess securely.

Negotiation teams are reportedly preparing to travel to Qatar to advance discussions regarding the hostage situation. Simultaneously, a secondary team will be engaging in negotiations in the Har Nof neighborhood of Jerusalem, aiming to facilitate Shas and other Haredi parties’ disengagement from their prior positions just before the summer break.

Conclusion

Netanyahu’s shrewd political maneuvering amidst military operations demonstrates the complexities of maintaining a coalition government in a delicate security context. As negotiations unfold, the outcome will likely hinge on both the internal dynamics of the coalition and the evolving situation in Gaza.

Tags: Benjamin Netanyahu, Operation “Marchevot Gideon