After Eizenkot’s Resignation, Blue and White Loses Ground to Yisrael Beiteinu
Political Landscape Shifts Dramatically
The recent resignation of Gadi Eizenkot from the National Camp has significantly shaken the opposition and reshuffled the political dynamics ahead of the upcoming elections. According to a special poll conducted following these developments, published during the “Central Edition” news show, if elections were held today, Blue and White-Gantz’s newly rebranded party-would see a loss of start mandate, bringing it down to six mandates, while Yisrael Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, would gain strength with a rise to ten mandates.
Current Mandate Distribution
In the scenario presented, the Likud party would hold 26 mandates, while Naftali Bennett’s party would receive 24 mandates. The remainder of the mandate allocations would be as follows:
- Democrats: 12 mandates
- Yisrael Beiteinu: 10 mandates
- Yesh Atid: 9 mandates
- Shas: 9 mandates
- United Torah Judaism: 8 mandates
- Blue and White: 6 mandates
- Otzma Yehudit: 6 mandates
- Hadash-Taal: 5 mandates
- The United Arab List (Ra’am): 5 mandates
The Religious Zionist Party and Balad would remain below the electoral threshold.
Potential Scenarios with Eizenkot
The poll also explored various scenarios regarding possible new political formations led by Eizenkot. If Eizenkot were to establish a new party, it is projected to secure eight mandates, thereby surpassing both Yesh Atid and Blue and White. In this case, the Likud would maintain its 26 mandates, but Bennett’s party would lose two, dropping to 22 mandates. The Democrats would similarly lose two mandates, resulting in 10, while Yesh Atid would shrink to seven mandates, with both Gantz and Lieberman each losing start mandate as well.
Eizenkot Leading Yesh Atid
An alternate scenario posits that Eizenkot could lead Yesh Atid, with Yair Lapid serving as his second-in-command. Under this arrangement, Likud would again hold steady at 26 mandates, yet Bennett’s party would fall to 21 mandates, while Yesh Atid, under Eizenkot, would skyrocket to 18 mandates. The Democrats would see a decline to 9 mandates, with Blue and White trailing behind at 4 mandates.
Strategic Alliance with Bennett
If Eizenkot were to ally with Bennett as the second-in-command, their combined party could emerge as the largest, potentially claiming 32 mandates. In this configuration, Likud would gain start mandate, increasing to 27, while the Democrats would decline to 11 mandates and Yesh Atid would drop to eight mandates. Notably, Blue and White could fall below the electoral threshold, securing only 2.6% of the votes.
Leadership Approval Ratings
Regarding the question of fit for prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu garners a support rate of 42% compared to opposition leader Yair Lapid’s 23%. Netanyahu also holds a 40% approval rating against Eizenkot, who achieves 27%. Interestingly, both Netanyahu and Bennett are tied in approval ratings, each securing 37% for the role of prime minister.
This poll was conducted by the Advisory and Research Institute under the direction of Mano Geva on July 1, 2025. The sample consisted of a representative cross-section of the population in Israel aged 18 and older, with 502 respondents participating. The maximum sampling error is ±4.4%, and the survey utilized standard statistical methods including stratified sampling and random sampling within strata, conducted both online and via telephstart