Upcoming Elections: What Needs to Happen First and Will the Knesset Be Dissolved?

Background on the Recruitment Exemption Crisis

In the wake of the recruitment exemption crisis and threats of withdrawal from the government, critical negotiations are underway to determine if Israel will head to elections. The future of the government depends on various factors, including the positions of Knesset member Yuli Edelstein, who is spearheading the legislation related to recruitment exemptions, and the response from the Haredi factions.

Edelstein’s Stance and Threats of Dismissal

Yuli Edelstein, Chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, has proposed personal sanctions against Haredim who do not enlist. His uncompromising demands have raised concerns about government stability, prompting some calls for his dismissal. However, it remains uncertain whether such a dismissal would pacify the Haredi factions.

Recently, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explored the option of dismissing Edelstein after the Knesset is dissolved in a preliminary vote, contingent upon Edelstein’s unwillingness to compromise. Meanwhile, representatives from the United Torah Judaism party argued that dismissing Edelstein would be pointless. The Likud party, which Edelstein is part of, denied intentions to remove him, stating through spokesperson Guy Levy that “there is no intention to fire Edelstein.”

The Impasse on Compromise

The path to resolution remains unclear, particularly regarding the sanctions issue. The Haredim consented to implement penalties linked to recruitment goals a year from now, while Edelstein insists that these sanctions should take effect immediately. Haredi representatives have also agreed to revoke housing benefits and child care subsidies if recruitment goals are not met, but only after a transitional year.

The Process for Dissolution of the Knesset

The Knesset can be dissolved either through a predetermined election date or via a decision by members of the Knesset or the government to disperse it prematurely. To pass a Law for Knesset Dissolution, multiple readings are required. The initial reading is scheduled for Wednesday, provided opposition parties do not withdraw their proposals.

For the preliminary vote, a simple majority is needed, with no requirement for 61 votes in favor. If the dissolution proposal is approved, it will proceed to the Knesset Committee. However, the current composition of the committee may hinder the proposal’s advancement without Haredi support.

If representatives from Shas and United Torah Judaism back the proposal-similar to opposition party members-it could lead to a vote of 9 in favor against 8 opposed.

Following committee approval, the proposal will be presented to the Knesset for a first reading, and ultimately, it will return for the necessary second and third readings.

As the political landscape in Israel remains tenuous, the resolution of these issues will determine the timing and nature of the next elections. The coming days are critical for securing agreements that could avoid a broader political crisis