Does Yair Lapid’s Claim About ‘Yesh Atid’ Hold Up?
In a recent interview, Yair Lapid, the leader of the ‘Yesh Atid’ party and head of the opposition, asserted that his political party has historically performed better in elections compared to pre-election poll predictions. His statement came in response to a question regarding his party’s current standing against the ruling party, Likud, which, according to polls, is expected to win significantly more mandates. But how accurate is Lapid’s claim?
Current Political Landscape
Polling data shows that Likud, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is projected to receive between 19 to 23 mandates, while ‘Yesh Atid’ is anticipated to secure around 7 to 12 mandates, significantly lower than what Lapid indicates in his critique of the government. The discrepancy raises questions about the public’s trust in leadership and the effectiveness of current polling methodologies.
Historical Performance of ‘Yesh Atid’
Founded on January 8, 2012, ‘Yesh Atid’ has participated in seven election cycles since its inception during the 19th Knesset elections in 2013. During this period, Lapid has frequently pointed to the party’s performance as evidence of its ability to outperform polls. To evaluate this claim, an analysis of polling accuracy versus election outcomes from each election cycle was conducted.
Election Outcomes Versus Polls:
- 2013 Elections: Polls indicated ‘Yesh Atid’ would receive 11 mandates; they finished with 19—representing a 73% increase. This is a substantial victory for Lapid’s narrative.
- 2015 Elections: Polls predicted an average of 12 mandates, but ‘Yesh Atid’ secured only 11, missing expectations by start mandate.
- 2019 Elections (First Round, with Benny Gantz): The ‘Blue and White’ alliance—including ‘Yesh Atid’—was forecasted to win approximately 29.6 mandates and exceeded this prediction, gathering 35 mandates.
- 2019 Elections (Second Round): In another round, ‘Blue and White’ gained 33 mandates, closely aligning with the anticipated 32 from polls.
- 2020 Elections: Polls estimated 33-34 mandates for ‘Blue and White,’ while the ultimate result was precisely 33 mandates, showing accurate polling with no deviation.
- 2021 Elections: As Lapid returned as head of ‘Yesh Atid’, polls forecasted around 18.5 mandates, yet the party concluded with only 17, falling short of the predictions.
- 2022 Elections: In the latest election for the 25th Knesset, the party was expected to achieve approximately 24.8 mandates and finished with 24, demonstrating reasonable polling accuracy again.
Conclusion
Upon reviewing the election history of ‘Yesh Atid’, Lapid’s statement that the party consistently performs better in elections than in polls is largely inaccurate. Out of seven election cycles, only in the inaugural election of 2013 did ‘Yesh Atid’ achieve a significantly higher result than predicted by polls. In most cases, the party’s final election results were either below or closely aligned with pre-election predictions.
Therefore, while Lapid’s reference to the 2013 election captures a moment of notable success, it does not establish a pattern of consistently outperforming polls. The conclusion is that his assertion is mostly incorrect, undermined by the data across subsequent electoral contests.
This investigation into ‘Yesh Atid’s performance serves as a reminder of the fluctuating dynamics within Israeli politics and the importance of verifying claims with historical data