The Day After the War: Potential Shifts in Middle Eastern Dynamics
Overview of Recent Developments
The military conflict that unfolded over a span of just 12 days has left a profound sense of achievement in Israel, yet it also raises several pressing questions. The United States is emphasizing military alliances, Iran is attempting to stabilize its regime, and Europe is working on military cohesion. The implications of the war against Iran extend to the Israeli Air Force, oil prstarts, and the continuation of normalization processes in the region.
The conflict, dubbed “Operation Lion’s Roar,” concluded with a ceasefire after the Iranian regime sustained severe blows. The axis of resistance opted to remain on the sidelines, indicating their weakened status, while Israel emerged with a decisive advantage. There is now hope that the demonstration of strength coupled with Iran’s decline will encourage significant regional normalization efforts.
The Path to Normalization
The Abraham Accords of 2020 saw the inclusion of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan-countries that have historically not been direct adversaries of Israel. However, the current candidates for normalization agreements include more contentious states such as Syria led by Ahmad al-Sharah (Abu Muhammad al-Jolani) and Lebanon, with a particular emphasis on Saudi Arabia, a pivotal player in Sunni leadership.
Strategic Interests and Military Alliances
Former President Donald Trump’s administration highlighted the importance of military alliances moving forward, utilizing improved bombers and ballistic missile systems. As Iran prepares to elect a new Supreme Leader, dynamics within the region are on the verge of a fundamental change, exposing vulnerabilities among Iran’s leadership and inciting anger and humiliation among its populace.
Concurrently, differing projections about oil prstarts-initially speculated to exceed $100 per barrel-have shifted concerns toward potentially low oil prstarts, reflecting fluctuating market dynamics.
Regional Players’ Perspectives
Following the October 7 Hamas attack, President Biden sought to connect India to Europe via a corridor that traverses the Gulf states and Israel. This initiative, known as the IMEC Plan, was anticipated to culminate in the normalization process between Jerusalem and Riyadh but was interrupted by the conflict in Gaza. The Palestinian sensitivities inherent to the Saudi public prevent Riyadh from normalizing relations with Israel without significant developments on this front.
The Case of Syria
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime presented a rare opportunity for Israel to forge a new relationship. Following the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, al-Sharah and his allied forces rapidly moved to challenge Assad’s grip, taking control of Damascus. Israel’s strategic entry into Syria aimed to establish a defensive depth and safeguard the Druze population in the south-a crucial concern against the backdrop of ongoing violence against Alawites to the north.
Israeli-Syrian discussions have reportedly resumed under conditions favorable to al-Sharah, who has publicly expressed a desire for cooperation. Unlike Assad, who operated under Iranian influence and provided sanctuary to Palestinian terrorist leaders, al-Sharah appears more open to a collaborative approach that excludes such groups.
Saudi Arabia’s Role
Saudi Arabia remains a significant regional player seeking to stabilize al-Sharah’s regime to limit the expansion of Iranian influence-a mutual interest shared with Israel. While the Saudi government publicly condemned Israeli actions against Iran, experts suggest that underlying messages indicate a more complex reality. Israel’s demonstrated capability as a formidable ally for Arab states seeking security is increasingly recognized.
However, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman faces internal pressures regarding Palestinian issues, complicating Riyadh’s potential move towards normalization with Israel. It is critical for him to showcase meaningful advancements concerning the Palestinian cause to maintain credibility within the Arab world.
Conclusion: Emerging Paradigm of Peace?
Normalization with both Syria and Lebanon is increasingly plausible and would provide Israel with regional stability absent among its bigger neighbors. While the possibility of an agreement with Saudi Arabia remains, the partnerships with Damascus and Beirut might diplomatically counter the tightening circle of hostility that Iran has tried to forge around Israel.
The dynamics in the region are fluid, and as the results from the conflict unfold, the landscape may very well shift towards an unprecedented era of peace and cooperation among historically adversarial nations