Deep Shock: Al-Julani Fails to Grasp the Pit He Has Dug for Himself
Overview of Political Turmoil Following Syrian President’s Meeting with Trump
The political landscape in Syria has been significantly shaken by the recent meeting between President Ahmad al-Shara and U.S. President Donald Trump, which took place on May 14 in Riyadh. The encounter has been met with a mix of approval from al-Shara’s supporters and deep disapproval from extremist factions who consider the United States their primary enemy.
According to reports from Asharq Al-Awsat, the reactions from various jihadist groups have ranged from suspicion to outright accusations of heresy. Although no organized response has emerged, these sentiments have proliferated across closed groups on Telegram and other digital platforms. A critical aspect of the criticism centers on al-Shara’s openness toward the West, particularly Israel.
Despite this backlash, it is important to note that there is no broad-based or substantial opposition within the new Syrian state apparatus. In fact, security forces and military entities, including factions that previously formed “Jabhat al-Nusra” and now constitute the core of the new government, have expressed clear support for the president’s approach. These groups, formerly part of the coalition that ousted the previous regime, view closer ties with the West, including Israel, as essential for shaping the next phase of the country’s future.
Emergence of Extremist Opposition
Amid this institutional cohesion, vocal opposition has emerged from outside the state framework. Notably, the group “Saraiya Ansar al-Sunnah” has surfaced as a new, radical organization. This group operates through clandestine channels, lacking a clear organizational structure, yet promoting extremist messages that include calls for vengeance and the denial of the legitimacy of the current government. The organization claimed responsibility in February for a bombing in the town of Arza in Hama province, which resulted in the deaths of over ten civilians. Since then, it has continued to disseminate radical messages but has yet to demonstrate significant on-the-ground activity.
While the Syrian Interior Ministry has not released official information, it has stated that continuous monitoring is underway. Sources cited in the report indicate that individuals belonging to this new group are implicated in targeted assassinations against Alawite civilians, whom they label “Shabiha,” or supporters of the old regime, claiming they have not faced appropriate retribution.
Prominent figures associated with Saraiya Ansar al-Sunnah include Abu Aisha al-Shami and Abu al-Fath al-Shami, who are believed to have previously been part of “Shomari al-Din,” a faction of al-Qaeda. In statements released on the group’s Telegram channel, Abu al-Fath condemned President al-Shara, labeling him a heretic and a traitor, calling him an enemy of faith, not merely a political adversary. Nevertheless, the group has not escalated to direct confrontation with the state, instead focusing its efforts on vengeance against what it identifies as pro-regime factions.
The ongoing discourse reflects the long-standing ideological rift between the conservative approach of al-Qaeda and the pragmatic stance of “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” as led by al-Shara. The meeting with Trump has rekindled these divisions within jihadist circles.
Criticism of President al-Shara from Within and Beyond
Key critics of al-Shara’s policies include Khaled Abu Qatada al-Ansari, a former senior figure in “Shomari al-Din,” who has classified al-Shara’s regime as heretical. Similarly, Samer Al-Ali (Abu Ubaidah), has accused the president of abandoning ideological principles for political pragmatism. Outside Syria, similar critiques have arisen; Iraqi activist Abu Abdullah al-Shami portrayed the rapprochement with the West as a betrayal of jihadist principles, while Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi issued a resolute condemnation of al-Shara.
In contrast, Abu Qatada expressed a more moderate stance, suggesting the move could be a tactical maneuver for political survival. Analyst Adham Abed al-Rahman, a former high-ranking military official in Syria, argues that there is currently no strong organizational framework for radical religious opposition. He contends that most returning religious groups are focusing on civic integration, despite their lack of allegiance to the ruling government.
Abed al-Rahman warns that groups like ISIS could exploit the situation to recruit supporters, but he believes the government possesses the necessary tools to counter this threat. Additionally, researcher Ahmad Sultan notes internal tension within “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham,” where some veteran members are uncomfortable with the rapprochement to the West, although the majority see it as a political necessity.
Conclusion: Balancing Act for the Syrian Government
President al-Shara appears to be navigating a precarious balancing act among different factions by fostering internal alliances and implementing both ideological guidance and sometimes strict measures against dissenters. The potential for fragmentation within extremist organizations poses a risk to government stability. Concurrently, the government faces additional security issues, particularly regarding the presence of SDF forces in the northeast.
Former offstartr Abu Yahya al-Shami asserts that addressing religious extremism requires maintaining a strong base of public support, cautioning that the recruitment of young people by fringe groups often stems from frustration and loss of trust. He advocates for interventions focused on education, outreach, and the reintegration of former fighters to combat these trends