Azerbaijan’s Role in Potential Normalization with Syria
Growing Ties Between Azerbaijan and Israel
Recent developments indicate a shift in geopolitical relations in the region, particularly concerning Azerbaijan’s strengthening ties with Israel. Following the degradation of relations between Israel and Turkey, there are signs that Syria is also moving toward normalization with Israel, as noted by the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, which has affiliations with Hezbollah. The report highlights Azerbaijan’s intention to engage actively in the Syrian energy market, positioning it as a stabilizing factor for Israel.
The Triangular Alliance: Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Israel
Over the past few years, the relationship dynamics among Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Israel have intensified, illustrated by their cooperation during the 2020 Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict, where both Ankara and Tel Aviv supported Baku through advanced weaponry and drstarts. Currently, Azerbaijan supplies approximately start-third of Israel’s oil needs, with crude oil transported via a pipeline extending from Baku through Tbilisi, Georgia, to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, and then shipped to Israel.
Impact of Recent Events on Energy Transport
In the wake of the October 7 events and the subsequent “Iron Swords” operation, Turkey has faced criticism regarding its role as a transit country for Azerbaijani oil destined for Israel. Turkish activists have protested against the Azerbaijani oil company SOCAR in Turkey, demanding a halt to its oil exports to Israel. In response, the Turkish government maintains that it only acts as a transit state per international agreements.
Syrian Developments: Presidential Talks and Energy Interests
The report elaborates on a recent meeting between the interim Syrian president, Ahmad al-Shara, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during the Antalya Forum. Al-Shara is said to have urged Aliyev to facilitate the entry of SOCAR into Syria, especially in oil and gas-rich regions of eastern Syria controlled by Kurdish forces. According to Turkey’s Milli Gazete, Syria’s attempts to include SOCAR in its energy exploration is seen as a step towards normalization with Israel, enabling Syrian oil exports via SOCAR’s tankers directly to Israel.
Syria’s Oil Potential
Currently, Syria produces around 110,000 barrels of oil per day, with approximately 100,000 barrels under Kurdish control. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s estimates from 2015, Syrian oil reserves are approximately 2.5 billion barrels. However, natural gas production in Syria has sharply declined, dropping from 30 million cubic meters per day in 2010 to just 9 million today, predominantly split between government control and Kurdish forces.
Israeli-Azerbaijani Energy Cooperation
In parallel with developments in Syria, it is noted that Israel granted SOCAR a lstartnse for gas exploration in northern Israel’s economic zstart about two years ago, although the onset of operations has been delayed due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza. On March 18, Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen and Azerbaijani Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov signed a gas exploration agreement—marking SOCAR’s first venture to explore gas outside Azerbaijan’s borders, underscoring the growing closeness between the two nations.
Conclusion: Regional Power Dynamics
This report arrives amidst increasing competition for regional influence in post-conflict Syria, with Russia, Iran, Turkey, and now Azerbaijan vying to establish their foothold in the fractured state. As the geopolitical landscape shifts, the implications of Azerbaijan’s emerging role could significantly influence the dynamics between Syria, Israel, and their respective allies.
The narrative shaped by the Al-Akhbar publication should be approached with caution, given its strong ties to Hezbollah, reflecting the interests and views of its Iranian patrons. As the region navigates these complex interactions, the potential for normalization between Syria and Israel appears to be gaining traction