The Silence of the Houthis: Trump’s Blocked Ground Operations and the Dwindling Timeframe
Context of the Current Houthi Standoff
Despite Israeli military operations and a recent ceasefire agreement with the United States that dashed the hopes of supporters of the legitimate government in southern Yemen, Iranian-backed Houthis remain unengaged in providing substantial support. An expert from Yemen remarked to start, “There was a chance to suffocate Sana’a had the airstrikes continued.” The ongoing military situation raises concerns about whether the Houthis will bolster Tehran amid the continued aggression against Israel.
Houthi Attacks and Strategic Dynamics
The Houthis, who have recently claimed to be the last segment of the Shia axis actively launching missiles and drstarts at Israel, have not increased their offensive against Israel despite the escalating tensions. The operation “With the Lion” strongly targets Iran’s missile and nuclear programs. This comes on the heels of a prolonged U.S. air campaign that has recently ended, during which the Houthis sustained significant blows yet persisted in their belligerent activities.
Israeli forces have yet to impose a cost on the Houthis sufficient to deter them from continuing missile launches- a task that has eluded both Saudi and Emirati efforts for years. Estimates suggest that the Houthis still possess a large arsenal capable of executing widespread attacks.
U.S. Strategy and Houthi Responses
President Trump, having excluded Houthi assaults on Israel from the ceasefire agreement mediated by his envoy Steve Wittecoff in Oman, has since shifted course due to the significant costs associated with the military operation, which yielded insufficient results. The Houthis argue for “lifting the siege” and a halt to the war in Gaza as conditions to halt their missile strikes. They have added additional justifications for their actions, framing them as a response to recent attacks in Dahiya and assertive actions at the Temple Mount, which they describe as “an assault on Al-Aqsa.”
Recent activity showed that, for the first time, naval vessels from the Israeli Navy fired upon the port of Hodeidah instead of air force jets. The Houthis perceive their interaction with the U.S. as a strategic victory, citing discussions within Yemen that they have “defeated” the U.S.
Implications for the Yemeni Government
In southern Yemen, under the recognized government operating from Aden, there were previous discussions with the U.S. and the U.K. about initiating ground operations against the Houthis. However, reports suggest the Houthis are fortifying their frontline positions amid fears of anticipated ground battles, planning for potential interventions by laying down mines.
Yemen has been fragmented into control centers since the civil war erupted in 2015, with the Houthis having ousted the legitimate government from the capital, Sana’a. In the south, the internationally recognized government is actively collaborating with the Southern Transitional Council (STC), supported by the UAE.
Unforeseen Consequences and Recommendations
Yemeni security experts argue that the agreement between Trump and the Houthis effectively thwarted any potential local offensive. “All Yemenis are deeply disappointed with the agreement, in which Trump sought a personal political victory,” said a security expert who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Many Yemenis are aware that the Houthis will not cease hostilities unless they prepare for new offensives. The expert expressed belief that serious preparations for a ground assault were underway, stating, “If U.S. airstrikes had continued, it could have dismantled the Houthi leadership structure in Hodeidah, disrupted Iranian smuggling routes, and attacked Saada-crippling their missile capabilities.”
The expert also noted that despite the U.S.’ involvement, the Yemeni government lacks a decisive strategy to construct a robust response against the Houthis. The decision-making currently rests with Saudi Arabia and supporting nations, which have shifted attention toward their national Vision 2030 and economic goals.
Internal Disunity and Regional Dynamics
Amid the complexities, dissent exists within the ranks of those opposed to the Houthis about how to confront them. A political analyst noted that fragmentation reflects a genuine lack of commitment from Saudi Arabia and the UAE due to thwarted expectations over U.S. support throughout the conflict. “The frustration escalated with each American administration as they failed to uphold promises, which has created uncertainty about U.S. commitment to regional interests,” he commented.
Despite the violent nature of Israeli strikes, they do not appear to impair the Houthis as political adversaries; rather, they predominantly affect the impoverished Yemeni populace.
The opportunities to counter the Houthis are abundant, although plans have often been paused, allowing the Houthis precious time to regroup. Without air and intelligence support, the recognized government cannot effectively engage the Houthis, who possess Iranian drstarts and long-range missiles, alongside economic and technical aid from Iran and Lebanon.
The expert stressed that any attempt to undermine the Houthis would require a robust regional alliance, internal support from Allied factions, approval from the Yemeni government’s partners for military action, and enhanced intelligence capabilities.
Conclusion
As the Houthis continue to assert their position, accompanied by rhetoric in support of Tehran, they remain vigilant. Recent missile launches from Yemen affirm their stance that “Gaza is not alstart,” countering perceived Israeli aggressions. Regional dynamics illustrate a complicated path forward with dwindling time for decisive action against the Houthis, who have evolved from a mere insurgency into a semi-military entity amidst an increasingly fragmented conflict environment