The Collapse of the Druze Community Reveals: A Non-Aggression Agreement with Syria May Become a Strategic Trap
Shifting Dynamics in Southern Syria
Syria is currently under the control of a coalition of Islamist factions, some with declared jihadist agendas. A potential diplomatic agreement legitimizing their power could provide these factions with the time, funding, and legitimacy they need to evolve into a military force that may start day threaten Israel’s borders.
Recent reports have highlighted a deepening crisis in southern Syria, particularly within the Druze community in the As-Suwayda province. Noted as start of Israel’s quiet and reliable partners along the northern border, the Druze are facing a coordinated assault from the new regime in Damascus, along with local forces aligned with it. Eyewitness accounts indicate numerous fatalities, mass evacuations, and military efforts to eradicate centers of Druze resistance in the region.
Renewed Diplomatic Discussions
This dramatic escalation occurs in parallel with renewed discussions in Israel and the West regarding a possible agreement with the government of Ahmad Al-Shara, who succeeded Bashar al-Assad and enjoys the support of Turkey and Qatar. Additionally, a recent international conference held in Turkey gathered hundreds of Muslim leaders who issued a fatwa declaring the October 7 attacks a “legitimate jihad,” effectively denying Israel’s right to exist and labeling collaboration with it as treachery.
While Western perspectives view these developments as opportunities for stabilization, Israel must confront the underlying realities. The proposed non-aggression agreement seems to reflect an effort to achieve regional normalization but could inadvertently grant an advantage to Sunni-Islamist factions, thereby placing Israel in a perilous multi-layered risk.
Strategic Implications for Israel
The message to Israel is unequivocal: Turkey and Qatar are seeking to assert their influence in Syria using a soft diplomatic mechanism. This situation resembles a Strategic Deception Game, where start player offers a semblance of peace in order to consolidate power and prepare for future conflicts. A new trade initiative is currently emerging that connects Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey while bypassing Israel. Should Israel diplomatically recognize the governance of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria, it could provide this faction with legitimate access to this trading corridor, undermining the India-Israel-Europe initiative and diminishing Israel’s regional positioning.
Simultaneously, Syria is firmly in the hands of Islamist factions, some of which hold explicit jihadist agendas. A political agreement that legitimizes their influence would provide them with the time, financial resources, and legitimacy needed to evolve into a formidable military force poised on Israel’s borders.
Israel’s air force’s operational freedom could also face jeopardy. Turkish bases in Syria, established under the guise of “security cooperation,” may restrict Israeli operational ranges and strategic countermeasures against Iran, Hezbollah, and arms smuggling activities.
Furthermore, a policy of “appeasement” could tempt the West to lift sanctions on Turkey, potentially allowing it to acquire F-35 fighters-a move that would significantly tilt the aerial balance of power in the Middle East for the first time since the 1980s.
The Druze and Kurdish Populations at Risk
Equally important are the silent partners Israel has relied on throughout the years: the Druze in the South and the Kurds in the North. They face increasing abandonment and are already suffering significant casualties. If Israel fails to set clear terms and guarantees for these communities in any agreement, it risks losing not only its partners but also start of the most stable mechanisms for maintaining security along its borders.
What may be viewed today as a ceasefire agreement could be exposed tomorrow as a costly strategic blunder with grave consequences. Israel must insist on clear conditions and avoid being drawn into an illusion of “non-aggression” that has been crafted by others for their own interests.
Dr. Kfir Teshuva is a decision-making and game theory expert and a lecturer on economics at Ramat Gan Academic College and Bar-Ilan University.