Turkey’s Dramatic Move in Syria: Implications for Israel

Introduction

In a significant development, Turkey has announced plans to assist the new Syrian government by establishing air, land, and naval bases within Syria to combat ISIS. This move, reported by security sources to the ODATV network, has raised alarms in Israel, which seeks to prevent any escalation of influence in the region.

Turkey’s Military Involvement

Turkey’s commitment includes support in building security and military institutions for the new Syrian regime. The establishment of military bases aims to facilitate Turkey’s role in the ongoing efforts against ISIS, reflecting a broader regional cooperation involving various states in the fight against this terrorist organization.

The Five-Party Mechanism

Sources indicate that a five-party mechanism, formed to coordinate actions against ISIS and including Turkey and neighboring states, convenes regularly. The goal is to ensure security and stability in Syria through cooperation and mutual support among regional actors.

Diplomatic Developments

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is scheduled to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in the coming days, a meeting deemed crucial for addressing various Syrian issues. Reports suggest the U.S. is likely to withdraw its forces from Syria while maintaining a symbolic presence, indicating a strategic shift in America’s role in the region.

Acknowledging Regional Dynamics

Commentators have noted that Trump appears less convinced of the benefits of a U.S. presence in the Middle East. Recognizing Turkey’s growing influence among regional states, the U.S. administration seems focused on avoiding potential pitfalls of further involvement.

Goals of the New Syrian Administration

The incoming Syrian government’s primary objectives include enhancing the country’s legitimacy and international recognition, revitalizing the economy, and maintaining territorial integrity. Notably, scenarios involving the partition of Syria are currently dismissed by the new administration.

Israel’s Concern

This report arrives amid ongoing tension between Israel and Turkey regarding Syria’s future. Turkey claims its bases are intended to support the new regime led by Al-Julani against ISIS; however, Israeli officials view this as an attempt to assert control over Syria and potentially establish a Turkish foothold.

Israel’s Military Strategy

Approximately two months ago, the Israel Air Force executed a striking operation aimed at thwarting immediate Turkish military advances into Syria, targeting Syrian airfields that supported the Assad regime. According to military sources, comprehensive bombardment destroyed critical infrastructure at airports in Tadmur and T4.

Conditions Set by Israel

Israel has emphasized two primary conditions for its engagement regarding Syria: the complete demilitarization of southern Syria to prevent threats against Israel and the assurance of aerial freedom over Lebanon and Syria. Communication with Turkish officials has helped clarify Israel’s red lines concerning the future of Syria.

Turkey’s Military Position

Turkey has solidified its status as a regional power politically, economically, and militarily, making direct confrontation with Israel a significant challenge. The country has bolstered its military capabilities, with arms exports reaching approximately $5.5 billion in 2023-nearly half of Israel’s military export figures.

Military Experience

The Turkish military is now start of the largest operational forces in the Eastern Mediterranean, having gained combat experience through engagements in Syria, Libya, and the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Conclusion

As Turkey’s plans progress, the geopolitical landscape in Syria remains complex and fraught with potential conflict. The implications of these developments extend beyond immediate military concerns, reflecting deeper regional dynamics that involve various state and non-state actors. For Israel, this rapidly evolving situation necessitates continued vigilance and strategic planning to safeguard its interests in an increasingly volatile neighborhood