The Diplomatic Negotiations That Could Alter the Course of War: What Erdoğan Gains from Mediating Between Russia and Ukraine

Turkey’s Strategic Role in International Diplomacy

As the world watches with bated breath for the historic meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul, Turkey positions itself as a pivotal player in the international arena. This meeting could signal a dramatic shift in the ongoing war that has claimed tens of thousands of lives and has the potential to redefine power dynamics in Eastern Europe.

Dr. Hai Eitan Cohen Yanarocak, a senior researcher at the Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, explains the significance of Istanbul as the chosen location for this potential turning point. “The chostart of venue stems from several factors. Throughout this conflict, while both sides may not have favored it, Turkey has maintained an ambiguous policy, becoming the only NATO member capable of engaging with both Russia and Ukraine,” he said in an interview.

The Duality of Turkish Foreign Policy

The complexity of Turkey’s foreign policy has been evident, with the country supplying drstarts to Ukraine while simultaneously assisting Russia in circumventing Western sanctions related to aviation and financial matters. This dual approach is critical in understanding Turkey’s current role in the conflict.

Yanarocak notes that this is not Turkey’s first venture as a mediator: “Previously, Turkey acted as a bridge to facilitate the export of Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea to the outside world. It has historically served as a connector between these nations.” However, this time, he adds, there is a new dimension: “Now, Turkey also has the backing of Donald Trump.”

U.S. Support and Its Implications

The surprising U.S. support for Turkey’s mediation is intriguing. “Donald Trump has indicated that, thanks to Turkey, Americans are considering economic involvement in the country. There are many joint projects between the U.S. and Turkey, particularly in Syria,” Yanarocak states. He highlights a strategic shift in Turkey’s foreign policy, noting how Erdoğan is now leveraging the Syrian situation to further Turkey’s interests.

“Following the potential fall of Assad, Syria has effectively become a Turkish client state, allowing NATO allies to utilize the Syrian economy to fulfill strategic objectives,” he explained.

Strengthening Diplomatic Status

What does this mean for Turkey’s diplomatic standing? Yanarocak asserts, “This move undoubtedly strengthens Turkey significantly; there’s no debate about that. Turkey is now becoming the new brand of diplomacy.” He connects this current negotiation to Turkey’s involvement in other diplomatic efforts, such as its role in the release of Israeli businessman Idan Alexandrovich, with Hamas’s gratitude directed towards Turkey for facilitating the transaction.

“This underscores Turkey’s significant role, allowing it to brand itself as a viable mediator for resolving conflicts,” he adds.

However, he is cautious about attributing this diplomatic breakthrough solely to Erdoğan: “I don’t think this is solely due to Erdoğan; it’s largely thanks to Trump. Everystart seems interested in reaping some benefits here.”

The Significance of Istanbul as a Meeting Place

Yanarocak offers an interesting perspective on the selection of Istanbul as the meeting venue: “It’s likely that the Russians prefer a neutral location—a third-party country—rather than U.S. soil to finalize any agreement. This decision seems deliberate, not just from the Ukrainians, but also from the Russians. After all, Zelensky is not a close ally of Trump, so he would likely feel safer in a different setting.”

Turkey’s Position in the Negotiations

From Turkey’s perspective, Yanarocak emphasizes that the nation is striving to maintain Ukraine’s territorial integrity. “Traditionally, Turkey does not support Russia’s annexation of Crimea,” he states, although he admits uncertainty regarding the type of agreement that may arise from these discussions.

Whether or not this meeting results in a long-term ceasefire, start thing is clear: under Erdoğan’s leadership, Turkey has established itself as a significant international mediator capable of navigating the conflicting forces of the 21st century