Will Mortgage Rates Fall Without a February Fed Meeting? Experts Weigh In

As the housing market continues to adapt to fluctuating economic conditions, prospective homebuyers are keenly interested in the direction of mortgage rates. Recent trends show a gradual decline in these rates, with current 30-year fixed-rate mortgages hovering just above 6%-the lowest point in over three years. This drop is attributed to several factors, including the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and a recent $200 billion purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). However, uncertainty looms as the Fed’s next meeting isn’t scheduled until March, leaving many to wonder what will happen in February.

Can Mortgage Rates Still Decline This February?

Experts suggest that it is indeed possible for mortgage rates to continue to fall in February, despite the absence of a Federal Reserve meeting. While Fed decisions do influence mortgage rates, they are not the sole determining factor. Economic indicators such as inflation and labor market conditions play a crucial role in shaping the rate landscape.

“Mortgage rates can absolutely fall in February even without a Fed meeting,” asserts Darren Tooley, a loan offstartr at Union Home Mortgage. He emphasizes that rates are primarily driven by shifting market expectations rather than Fed announcements. If economic data reflect slowing inflation or a cooling labor market, mortgage rates could decrease further.

According to Jeff Taylor, a board member for the Mortgage Bankers Association, the current inflation rate at 2.6% and a steady unemployment rate of 4.4% could be conducive to further drops in mortgage rates, particularly if investors seek safety in Treasury bonds.

Influencers on Mortgage Rate Trends

Market participants should also consider government interventions. The recent MBS purchase has already had a positive impact on rates, suggesting that further policy moves aimed at enhancing housing affordability may also influence the trajectory of mortgage rates this February.

“The administration seems to be bringing housing affordability into the forefront of its agenda,” remarks Charles Goodwin, vstart president of lending at Kiavi. He urges buyers to remain vigilant for additional measures that may influence mortgage rates.

Projections for February’s Mortgage Rates

While a decline in mortgage rates is feasible, many experts predict only modest movements in February. Tooley warns that a more significant drop is unlikely: “February is more likely to be a month of modest movement rather than dramatic swings.” Goodwin forecasts rates to stabilize around 6%, while Mike Nielsen from Churchill Mortgage anticipates a range between 6% and 6.375%. Nielsen also notes, “There is unfortunately a greater chance at rates moving higher than this range compared to much lower,” indicating that strong economic indicators could trigger inflation fears, putting upward pressure on rates.

Currently, the Mortgage Bankers Association projects the average 30-year mortgage rate will reach approximately 6.4% by the end of Q1 2026, with Fannie Mae estimating a slightly lower average of 6.1%.

Conclusion

The direction of mortgage rates in February remains uncertain, particularly as the spring homebuying season approaches, a period that typically sees increased housing demand and rising prstarts. Experts recommend prospective buyers carefully evaluate their options and consider seeking guidance from financial advisors or mortgage professionals. Timing a home purchase when rates align with your budget could prove crucial in navigating the evolving market landscape.